When they sounded this sure before, were they right?
One card per public leader: every big dated claim, word for word, with its primary source, what actually happened beside it, and whether they owned the difference. Read the record in five minutes, then weigh the new claim yourself.
TrackRecord re-organizes records that institutions already publish, and it grades claims, not people.
Ben Bernanke · Federal Reserve Chair MISSED
NBER dates a recession from December 2007 to June 2009 — the deepest since the 1930s; Lehman Brothers failed September 2008.
Warren Buffett · Berkshire Hathaway CEO HELD
The 2008 crisis ran through exactly this channel; the FCIC report documents derivatives (AIG credit default swaps) as a core amplifier.
HOW GRADING WORKS
Five stamps. Plain rules.
In a 20-year study of 28,000 expert forecasts, the most famous experts were among the least accurate. We file what they said next to what happened, and each claim gets exactly one stamp. See a claim too vague to grade →
It happened.
It didn't.
They said so themselves. That's a credit.
Clock's still running.
Too vague to grade. The count is the signal.
Changing your mind is the stamp we want leaders to earn. A documented, acknowledged change of view is scored as a credit. Only the silent reversal counts against a record.
A stamp grades one claim. It is never a verdict on a person.
- Every major claim filedIn the full product, the claim list is published in advance, so nobody can cherry-pick the misses.
- Outcome words onlyThe site says "the prediction did not occur", never "lied".
- Two evidence classesInstitutional documents vs dated records of spoken remarks. Every entry is labeled with its class.
- Corrections are freeAny leader's office can ask for a correction at [email protected], and every entry links to the document it came from.
WHO'S ON FILE
Eleven cards, hand-researched.
Seventeen claims in all. Every quote was verified against its primary source before filing.
3 HELD · 9 MISSED · 3 REVISED · 1 ON RECORD · 1 UNSCORABLE
SEARCH THE DEMO · REQUEST A CARD
FAIR QUESTIONS
Straight answers.
Isn't this defamation?
No. Every grade is an opinion built on public records shown in full. Each verdict sits on a linked word-for-word quote and a linked outcome document, so you can check the grading yourself. The site uses outcome words, never intent words, and any leader's office can ask for a correction.
Is this a gotcha site?
No. Hits get scored: Buffett's derivatives warning and his ten-year index bet both carry HELD stamps in the demo. REVISED credits honest updating. And vague claims are stamped UNSCORABLE and never graded, so nobody loses points for careful wording.
Is it really free?
Free for everyone, with no account and no payments of any kind. The interest list is the only thing this site collects, and it exists to answer one question: should this get built?
Does this exist yet?
No. The demo is a sampler of eleven cards. If enough people ask for the record, we build the rest.
THE INTEREST LIST
Built only if people want it.
IF THE LIST STAYS QUIET, YOUR EMAIL IS DELETED.